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Contents
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1.A. Monte Carlo Services Offered

1. The Input Data has Uncertainties;
2. The "answer", or Output, must accurately represent the Input Data;
3. The calculated uncertainty in the "answer", or Output, must accurately reflect the Uncertainty in the Input data; and
4. The calculated uncertainty in the "answer", or Output, must be an accurate measure of the validity of the model.

1. Quick Easy-Monte Carlo Pro Forma Analysis Calculation - 1-Day Project Turn-Around starting at $475.00. Follow this link for more information about the Easy-Monte Carlo process.
2. Monte Carlo Risk Analysis - 1-Week Project Turn-Around for $2,500.
   You send us the Business Plan for analysis. We will analyze the Business Plan for Uncertainties and Errors and perform the Monte Carlo Analysis. Our Report will include the following information.
   • Calculated Mean Value of the Net Cash Flow per year for the Project.
   • Three different Probabilities (between 40% and 90%) that the Net Cash Flow will be greater than a certain value. These Probabilities are selected and calculated for each year in the Business Plan by the software. An example would be that "There is a Probability of 87% that the Net Cash Flow for a Project during the 3rd year will be at least $1,076,954."
   • Calculated Mean of the Net Profit per year for the Project.
   • Three different Probabilities (between 40% and 90%) that the Net Profit will be a certain value. This is completely analogous the item above.
   • Profitability Index of the entire Project. This is defined as
     
   • Three different Probabilities (between 40% and 90%) that the Profitability Index will be at least a certain value for the entire Project.
   
   
3. Technical Due Diligence (Full Risk Analysis) - Price varies according to the location and scope of the Project.
   The Report will be written in a manner that will allow an independent third party to take my report and reproduce my results. All "source documents" are included in Appendices. A typical Analysis that has a 30-page Report will have 200 to 500 pages of documentation in Appendices.
   
   
4. Monte Carlo Simulation (Software or Project) - Price varies according to the scope of the Project.
   Monte Carlo Simulation software can be developed for any application. The algorithms will be mutually agreed to before the Project starts. If the Software is to be provided for the Client's use, Source code will be provided, User's Manual written, and permanent license provided to the Client for a fixed price.

1.B. Sample Input for Monte Carlo Risk Analysis Calculations

1. Project Data Required
   1. Number of Years for Calculation (Up to 5 years)
   2. Capital Investment Required for pro forma
   3. Number of Expense categories for year (Up to 20 for each year)
   4. Number of Income Categories for year (Up to 20 for each year)
2. Annual Data Information
   1. Capital Equipment Expenses for each year (Note: Straight-line 5 year Depreciation is automatically calculated and used)
      • Smallest Possible Value for each entry
      • Most Likely Value for each entry
      • Largest Possible Value for each entry
   2. Interest Rate to be used in NPV Calculations for each year
      • Smallest Possible Value for each entry
      • Most Likely Value for each entry
      • Largest Possible Value for each entry
   3. Annual Expenses for each of the up to 20 categories for each year
      • Smallest Possible Value for each entry
      • Most Likely Value for each entry
      • Largest Possible Value for each entry
   4. Annual Incomes for each of the up to 20 categories for each year
      • Smallest Possible Value for each entry
      • Most Likely Value for each entry
      • Largest Possible Value for each entry

Total Numbers = (1 number of years) + (1 Initial Capital Required) + (5 Expense Categories per year) + (5 Income Categories per year)+ (5 x 3 Capital Items) + (20 x 5 x 3 Expense Items) +(20 x 5 x 3 Income Items) = 627

1.C. Qualifications & Experience with Monte Carlo

• Developed and Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to Perform Risk Analysis of Technical Business Ventures.
• Developed and Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to evaluate securities trading methodologies and the future value of portfolios.
• Developed and Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to determine the Risk in large Oil and Gas Drilling programs.
• Developed and Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to model diffusion of certain chemical species through porous, permeable and semi-permeable materials in environmental applications.
• Taught Monte Carlo Risk Analysis Class at the Permian Basin Graduate Center in Midland, Texas.
• Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to aid in the design of nuclear weapons for the United States.
• Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to determine key vulnerability issues of United States' Nuclear Weapons.
• Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to calculate reaction rates in complex radiochemical systems.
• Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to calculate the rate of heat transfer in complex, many-component systems
• Used Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to aid in the Design of Delayed-Neutron detectors and Experiments.